Sunday, June 7, 2015

日本对比中国

1968年,日本成了世界第二大经济体而且还持续了30年。然而在1990年代初,资产泡沫破灭之后,日本开始了持续的衰退已超过20年了。日本持续低迷的个人消费是导致这个悲惨发展的众多原因之一。以下因素导致营造一个由消费主导的复苏失败:
1. 人口的老龄化和人口下降。在2008年人口达顶峰后就一直缩减。
2. 个户收入的下降。
3. 低迷的资产价值。
4. 日本有严重性的结构性问题,不愿意改革。

有别于日本,基于以下因素,中国由消费主导的增长模式有更好的机会:
1. 人口增长,大量高消费人口。
2. 个户收入的上升。
3. 中国城市化还有很大空间。
4. 保持改革和创新以及卓越的领导。

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Extract From "Can We Retire in Singapore"

1. Retirement income portfolio must be divided into two portions; first is a reliable income stream for a basic retirement and second is meant to give us additional income for a better lifestyle, which we can get by investing in higher-return instruments spread over a few buckets for drawdown at different periods.

2. A good retirement is not just about having enough money; it is also about living a purposeful life. When planning for the money part, do also consider how to spend time in the last phase of life.

Can We Retire in Singapore?, Business Times 28 March 2015

Saturday, January 10, 2015

股票投资良言


1. 股市无学问;只要花95%时间想策略,找产业并耐心地等待,花5%时间当机立断买或卖。

2. 雷浩斯的价值投资操作原则:
a.       在景气復甦初期买入
b.      挑ROE超过15% & 每年股利殖利率平均6%以上个股
c.       在个股本益比(PER)跌到8-10倍逢低买进,PE拉高16倍以上卖出

3. 采取反向政策,买价越低,风险越低;企业方面,坚持只买成长股。

4. 无论什么股票,都一定要价值被低估时才值得买进。

5. Buy/Sell timing:
a.       牛市股值被高估,切勿买进做长期投资。
b.      熊市股值被低估,买进作长期投资的良机。
c.       股票价值的高估或低估,应与盈利挂钩-PER(本益比)&成长潜能。
d.      淡时买进热时卖出,为上策。
P/S:成长-企业的营业量,盈利&股东基金的增长。

6. 一般标准评估其合理的价值:
a.       PER不超过10,盈利保持合理的成长
b.      市价账面资产比率(Price/Book Value Ratio)在1以下(即价值被低估)= Price∕每股净有形资产价值
c.       周息率(D/Y=Dividend Yield)比银行定期存款利率高。

7. NTA (Net Tangible Assets), ROE (Return of Equity), Price/Book Value Ratio
a.       公司的盈利对股票价格的影响比每股净值(NTA)更大
b.      唯有盈利上升,股东才可能取得更高的股息。
c.       NTA佷高,但盈利平平的股票,股价始终不起。

8. 基础分析 (FA)-3个层次去研究:
a.       经济分析- 市场投资环境的大气候
b.      行业分析- 研究各不同行业的兴衰
c.       个别公司的分析

9. 巴菲特的投资技巧:
a.       不必认识所有的上市公司,只须集中几家公司的资讯,作正确评估,便可以了
b.      将大部分资金放于几只所熟悉的股票上,研究有关公司的动向,长期留意其动态。

10. 曾淵沧的投资法:
a.       股灾式的下跌,往往是最佳的投资机会。如果身边存有大量现金,是最适合冒险投入。
b.      名言:强者的成功秘诀是永不消极退缩。

11. 坚守4原则赚股利又赚价差:
a.       必选龙头股
b.      买进价要低(本益比&股价净值比要低)
c.       看月线操作
d.      适度分散(但不可太分散)

12. 存股心得
a.       存股等于替自己多加一份薪水
b.      长抱好股,别管股价,只有股息才是真的
c.       选好公司,等好价钱,价钱到了就一直买

13. 长期投资最大的关键:
a.       选择能抱的好股票
b.      进场的价钱

14. 选股操作3步骤:
A.      选好股
a.       获利稳定成长-EPS长期趋势向上(近3年EPS平均值 > 近5年EPS平均值> 近10年EPS平均值)
b.      经营&财务稳定- ROE 5至10年都维持在10%以上
c.       股息配发稳定
d.      成熟产业龙头
B.      算好买进价
a.       股价净值比小于1
b.      PE低于10

C.      股息滚入、逢低再加码

Thursday, August 28, 2014

冷眼名句

1. 买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是买公司的部分业务和资产,投资的成败,决定于公司的成败。

Saturday, August 23, 2014

Investing Lessons From A Cheap Diner

David Kuo | 20 August, 2014

Dear Foolish reader,

I can’t say I was disappointed. I can’t even say I was a little peeved. But I have to admit to being a tad bemused.

Let me explain.

I recently visited a new-opened restaurant in Singapore. The eatery claims to serve European cuisine at realistic prices. That, for me, is like waving a red rag in front of a bull. Or in investing parlance, it is like waftng a stock with a 7% yield under the nose of an income seeker.

My “eureka” moment

The prices, as the restaurant claimed, were indeed realistic. But the analyst in me couldn’t help wondering how the business made money. How did shareholders earn a return on their investment?

My “eureka” moment came when I asked for a cup of tea at the end of my meal.

The waiter politely informed me that the restaurant did not serve tea. Nor did it, he politely pointed out, serve coffee. He then politely asked if he could bring me my bill, as I appeared to have nothing in front of me left to eat.

From start to finish, polite efficiency was the order of the day. No sooner had I ordered my meal than the starter materialised. And as soon as the last drop of soup had passed my lips, the main course appeared.

The restaurant, you see, makes money by turning over its customers quickly. So, serving tea or coffee at the end of a meal would defeat the purpose.

Focus pocus

Thing is, the restaurant keeps its prices low, which means that its profit are probably wafer-thin. But to compensate for the low margins, it must sweat its assets harder to achieve a decent return.

That is why it does not serve hot beverages at the end of the meal. In the time that it would take a customer, such as me, to sip my inexpensive cup of hot tea, the restaurant could have served another diner with a pricier main course.

They key to the restaurant’s success is focus. Every member of staff has to concentrate on the goal, which, in the case of the eatery, is a high return on asset - the higher the better.

As investors, we need to be focussed on the “big prize” too. We need to know where we are today and where we would like to be, financially, by a certain stage in our life.

We also need to have some idea of the key variables – even if they are guesstimates – if we are to avoid getting lost in the mazy world of finance.

Income or growth

For some investors, the goal could be to achieve a retirement pot of S$1 million by the time they reach 55 years of age in 30 years’ time. For others it could be to generate a recurring income from their retirement fund after they stop work.

These are laudable objectives. What’s more, the stock market could provide the means for you to achieve your goals – whatever they might be.

Growth investors might focus on companies that have the potential to significantly outperform the market. Companies such as Raffles Medical, BreadTalk and Super Group are some examples of stocks that have grown considerably over the years.

But growth investors are also aware that with higher growth comes a higher level risk. As these companies are expected to grow quickly, any hint of a slowdown could be punished by an unforgiving market.

Income investors tend to be more sedate. Consequently, they could lean towards more mature companies that have the ability to pay out a significant proportion of their profits to shareholders.

These could include telecom behemoth Singapore Telecoms, supermarket Dairy Farm and Real Estate Investment Trusts, of which there are far too many to mention.

The best of both worlds

As for me, I like a bit of everything. Consequently, I have deliberately built a portfolio of growth and income shares. I even have a handful of speculative shares to make life a bit more exciting.

Achieving our financial goals is within everyone’s reach. But to attain our objectives we have to start today. Not tomorrow. Not the day after but immediately.

So, begin by building your investment portfolio straight away. And stay focussed, whatever might happen in the markets around you.
Be sure to follow us on Facebook for the latest in Foolish investing.

'Til next time

Foolish regards,

David Kuo
David Kuo
Director, Motley Fool Singapore

Friday, July 18, 2014

Starburst IPO

5 Things You Should Know About Starburst IPO
INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING | 11 JULY 2014


By: Choo Hao Xiang


Imagine owning part of a business that economic conditions have the least bearing on. This idea has and always will be one that cannot be resisted. Particularly in the face of uncertainty which is all there is in the equity markets.
Fitting nicely into the recession-proof class is the latest entrant to the Catalist board on the Singapore Exchange – engineering specialist Starburst Holdings Limited (Starburst).
Shares Investment recently met up with Starburst’s management team to understand more about the company’s business.
Recession-Proof Business
Starburst is the go-to company where firearms-training facilities are concerned. Covering the entire supply chain from design to installation phases, Starburst provides anti-ricochet ballistic protection systems for firearm shooting ranges and tactical training mock-ups.
As part of the company’s integrative approach, Starburst also administer maintenance services to keep such facilities in tip-top conditions.
“Starburst is the natural choice for maintenance services. Following the minimum one-year defect liability period that comes after project completion, clients would tend to extend their maintenance contracts with Starburst,” Edward Lim, Executive Chairman of Starburst, elaborated.
Sales Breakdown
Source: Company Prospectus
As of 9 June 2014, the company’s order book stood at $45.8 million; out of which $19.7 million is derived from firearm shooting ranges and tactical training mock-ups business segments and will be translated into revenue over the next year. The remaining which comes from maintenance services and others segment would translate into revenues over the next one to 19 years.
The company’s clientele include law enforcement, military and security agencies as well as civil authorities, which spans across the Southeast Asia and the Middle East regions.
Product Differentiation
The key differentiation between Starburst and its peers boils down to its specialty – the fit out of a facility with bullet containment systems. This system utilises the company’s proprietary protection materials under the “Searls” trademark, which have been tested for compliance with the relevant safety regulations.
Major Players In The Engineering And Construction Of Training Facilities Industry
Source: Company Prospectus
"Searls" Anti-Ricochet Materials
High Barriers To Entry
Equipped with close to 15 years of track record, Starburst has established itself as a trusted provider, with over 20 facilities completed in both Southeast Asia and the Middle East. In this line, the importance of having the qualifications and experience that meet the requirements of its customers cannot be overstated.
“Only pre-approved specialists are granted access to the bidding stage. Starburst has been appointed as one of these entities by governments in Southeast Asia and the Middle East,” Jonathan Yap, Managing Director of Starburst, explained.
Apart from government bodies, the company has also been maintaining close business relationships with military training software and equipment suppliers, which are considered competitors of Starburst. Connectivity in the value chain is another critical factor as such links would prove helpful in sales lead generation and referrals.
Considerable Profitability
As mentioned earlier, Starburst is in control of the entire supply chain which is a great position to be in. Managing the whole flow would allow Starburst to monitor on quality and ensure efficient processes.
Such advantages have manifested in the company’s profitability measures. As shown in the chart below, the company has been able to reap a high proportion of its revenue as net profit. The latest fiscal year saw 41.5 percent of revenue flowing down to the company’s bottom line.
Also, net margin has been increasing since FY11 with strong return on assets and return on equity for the past three years at double digits.
Profitability Metrics
Source: Company Prospectus
On the sustainability of its results, the company intends to build up its maintenance segment where contracts are on fixed terms, thereby creating recurring income and clearer earnings visibility for Starburst.
Strategic Positioning
While the need for nations to offer better protection for their assets and territorial integrity is always present, the two geographical areas Starburst is operating in present huge potential.
Based on McKinsey’s “Southeast Asia: The next growth opportunity in defence” report, Southeast Asia is among the top defence spenders worldwide. As for the Middle East, it is slated to be one of the fastest growing market in terms of defence spending according to IHS Jane’s Annual Defence Budgets Review.
IPO Details
Starburst (40D) was listed on 10 July 2014. 50 million new shares of the company have been offered at $0.31 apiece.
Starburst has earmarked 50.3 percent of the $15.5 million in gross proceeds raised from the initial public offering exercise, for expansion purposes via purchasing land and buildings as well as plants and machinery.
The balance will be utilised as general working capital.
Starburst intends to pay out 20 percent of its net profit, excluding any exceptional and extraordinary income, for this current financial year.
Investment Merits
• Recession-proof business
• Established player with accredited proprietary protection materials
• High barriers to entry; involves close business relationships and specialised know-how
• High profitability
• Low default probability among its clients
• Management team vested interest of 80 percent
Investment Risks
• Manpower constraints
• Reputational damage
• Additional regulations or revocation of permits and licences
SI Research Takeaway
Being in a niche industry armed with a unique business model, Starburst seems set to take the global stage by storm.
What’s more, they are choosing their spots after careful considerations so as to grab onto parts of a growing pie and maximise on opportunities.

Sunday, June 22, 2014

A Story of a Full-Time Investor

Five-digit dividend a month for investor

Bank officer's decision to make a living out of investing proves to be a good move

The Sunday Times - November 3, 2013
By: Rachel Scully
Five-digit dividend a month for investorBalancing risks: "My dad died when I was 25 and he left me the family house... Since I already had risk exposure to property, I felt that I should put my money into other types of assets." - MR ANG HAO YAO (above, at home with his wife Priscilla and dau
From a young age, Mr Ang Hao Yao, 41, knew that he wanted to make a living out of investing. 
Thirteen years ago, he decided to live the dream and took the bold step of leaving his job as a loan officer at then Keppel TatLee Bank to kick-start his career as a private investor. 
"I started investing in stocks with money from my savings shortly after I turned 21," he recalls. 
"After six years, I felt that I'd a sufficiently good record of making a simple living out of it; and if I committed more time to it, I could probably do even better." 
However, the decision to be completely reliant on his investment acumen to sustain a livelihood did not sit well with his mother, who was sceptical of his decision. "She'd rather I stayed on in a stable job," said Mr Ang. 
But after several years of seeing how his wealth had grown through his stock picks and investment strategy, his mother was eventually convinced that it was the right career for him.
Fortunately for Mr Ang, his wife Priscilla Lai was a remisier and was more open to his childhood ambition of being a full-time investor. 
Unlike many Singaporeans, property was never on Mr Ang's mind as an investment strategy. 
"My dad died when I was 25 and he left me the family house," said the youngest of three siblings. "Since I already had risk exposure to property, I felt that I should put my money into other types of assets." 
Most of Mr Ang's stock picks are smaller locally based businesses listed on the Singapore Exchange. 
"I keep an eye out for companies which have been in the business for five to 10 years," he said. 
"Stocks which are undervalued appeal to me, especially for companies whose market capitalisation is less than the value of the assets, or have a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 and below."
Although he specialises in sussing out smaller firms here, Mr Ang doesn't go for speculative counters. He was not affected by the recent penny stock crash, and said the episode is an affirmation of his investment preference.
As a full-time investor, Mr Ang keeps track of company announcements every day, attends annual general meetings, actively follows developments on corporate governance and reads up on business news to be aware of what is happening in the market.
On average, his investments yield a five-figure dividend per month. 
Q: Are you a spender or a saver?
I try to save as much as possible without being stingy with my friends and family. Most of my savings are invested in Singapore-listed equities, while the rest are in foreign currencies and gold.
Q: How much do you charge to your credit cards every month?
I use only one debit card and one credit card. The debit card is used for online transactions which make up a minor part of my spending.
The credit card is used for most other expenses including booking air tickets for a family holiday. On average, I charge about $4,000 to $5,000 a month to my credit card.
Q: What financial planning have you done for yourself?

I save and invest what money I have left after accounting for expenses.
As a private investor, my portfolio and investments are my financial planning. 
On average, my investments get me a 10 per cent return per year.
I do not purchase any endowment or investment-linked insurance policies. Instead of paying someone to invest my money for me, I believe that I have the skills to get the return I need. 
Q: Moneywise, what were your growing up years like?
My parents often stressed the need for accumulating knowledge and skills, and would pay only for expenses relating to books and enrichment classes. 
They also believed that it was important to have little or no debt and that one should try and save the entire purchase sum before buying anything, including cars and property. I've followed in their footsteps and have always been cash-positive. 
Q: How did you get interested in investing?
I'd grown up watching my dad go through the weekly stock market summary in the papers to check on some of his blue-chip stocks. He was then a chemistry lecturer at the university but taught me the basics of investing.
And that exposure to what equities and the stock market were intrigued me since. 
Shortly after I turned 21, I made my first investment with a few thousand dollars from my savings and income from my temporary job.
Q: What property do you own?
My late father left me the house in Bukit Timah 16 years ago.
In 2007, I bought an office space, where I have meetings and do my "homework" on companies. The unit along Havelock Road cost about $200,000 for the 300 sq ft space. It has about 70 years left on its lease.
Q: What is the most extravagant thing you have bought?
I rarely buy anything lavish as I view expensive possessions as a liability. However, I did spend about $10,000 on a decorative marble wall feature in my living room last year.
Q: What's your retirement plan?
I don't have a target retirement age as a private investor; but I hope to accumulate enough assets so that my wife and I can live on the returns of our investments.
Q: Home is now...
A two-storey house in Bukit Timah with a land area of over 6,000 sq ft, with five bedrooms and an attic where I live with my mum, wife and two daughters.
Q: I drive...
A silver RX 270 Lexus which I bought three years ago. I need a reliable car as I travel a lot during the day attending meetings and running errands. It is also big enough to fit my family comfortably.